README

Replication Data for: High-Road or Low-Road? Europe’s EV Battery Rollout and the Trade-Offs of Green Industrial Policy in a Geoeconomic World
Author: Palma Polyak

1. Overview

This dataset provides project-level data on electric vehicle (EV) battery manufacturing investments in the European Union. It underpins the empirical analysis in "High-Road or Low-Road? Europe’s EV Battery Rollout and the Trade-Offs of Green Industrial Policy in a Geoeconomic World", which examines how EU member states navigate trade-offs between fast clean-tech rollout and sustainable production; foreign-led expansion and domestic capability-building; and physical localization and geopolitical resilience.

The dataset is used to map the scale, ownership structure, and risk profile of battery cell manufacturing projects across EU member states, and to distinguish between different industrial policy paths (high-road vs. low-road strategies).

2. File included

Replication data _ High Road Low Road _ Polyak.xlsx
Main project-level dataset covering planned and operational EV battery cell manufacturing capacity in the EU.

3. Unit of observation

Each row corresponds to a battery cell manufacturing project.

4. Variables and structure

Identification and location
Company: Name of the investing firm.
HQ: Headquarters category of the firm (e.g. Domestic, Other EUR, CN, KR).
Country Code: Host country of the project (ISO country code).
City: City or locality where the project is located.

Capacity status (in GWh)
ONLINE (GWh): Operational battery cell manufacturing capacity in 2024.
LOW RISK (GWh): Planned capacity assessed as low risk (advanced construction or near-term delivery).
HIGH RISK (GWh): Planned capacity assessed as high risk.
CANCELLED (GWh): Capacity associated with cancelled projects.
TOTAL (E+F+G) (GWh): Total operational and planned capacity.

Project risk and timing
RISK PROFILE: Overall project status based on author's assessment (ONLINE, LOW RISK, HIGH RISK, CANCELLED).
Phase 2 risk: Indicator for second-phase expansion risk, where relevant.
PLANNED START: Planned year of production start.
DELAYS?: Indicator of reported delays (e.g. “Delayed,” “On time”).
CONSTRUCTION BEGAN?: Whether construction has begun, where known.
REASON FOR "HIGH RISK" DESIGNATION: Qualitative reason for classifying a project as high risk (e.g. early planning stage, regulatory uncertainty).

Fiscal support: Reported public financial support associated with the project (in EUR millions, where available).

5. Data sources

The dataset was compiled from publicly available sources, including:
Company announcements
Press releases
Media reports
For fiscal support: EU state aid database, media reports

Where information was incomplete or evolving (especially for planned projects), risk classifications reflect the best available information at the time of data collection.

Time of data collection: Nov 2025 (monitoring 2024 status)

6. Limitations
Planned capacity figures are subject to revision as projects evolve.
Fiscal support data are incomplete and reflect only publicly disclosed amounts.
Risk classifications involve informed judgment based on project maturity, regulatory exposure, and reported delays.

8. Contact
For questions regarding the dataset:
Palma Polyak
Email: palma.polyak@mpifg.de